Volatility Move 28.12.2020

The market has been incredible this year. Not only the corona virus, but also the dynamics of specific industries such as elektromobility and the oil and gas trading.

Now the Dow Jones is putting in a quite long sideways move, which is correlated with a time of the year ending and an end of the US presidential election cycle. In addition the future problem of corona virus could be solved better than expected. This is a lot of news. It makes no sense at all that the indices rallies just from the lows in march 2020. There could be several reasons for this, for example: investors have no idea what else to invest in. The governments take more and more the functions of insurance and a wider variety of basic consumer trading. There might be a time lag in the decisions, which could lead to the safety allocation much later (eg 1-2 years later). Due to this, maybe the bond markets will become very interesting in the next few decades, but it is not possible to judge this. Of course gold markets have worked as a hedge, but the fundamental underlying trade of gold is questionably since we have digital currencies such as Bitcoins.

If fact we can see the first sign of volatility again after one decent move into Christmas. It will remain unclear in the dynamic of how it will evolve. For sure I recommend you read my two books on the topic of trading short term and volatility dynamics again. Here is the link: https://www.amazon.com/Valentin-Rossiwall/e/B004FNPO3Q

Volatility and Dow Jones